Fukuoka kicks off the 2028 Olympic qualification race: Japan and the pressure of the dominant

The corridors of the stadium taught me that football truly begins behind the studio door. But with volleyball, the story begins even before the first ball is served. It begins with rankings, with head-to-head history, with the medals stacked in confederation trophy cases. And this week, that story will be continued in Fukuoka, where the 2026 AVC Men's Volleyball Asian Championship officially begins, doubling as a World Cup qualifier and serving as the starting point for the race to secure a berth at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics. I have followed Asian volleyball for over a decade, from the noisy stands of Manila to the eerily quiet arena in Tokyo during the pandemic. The empty stands of 2026 did not mean the match was soulless; it just meant the song needed to be sung louder. And in Fukuoka this year, the Japanese song will be sung at maximum volume, as they enter the tournament as defending champions, the highest-ranked team in Asia, and the only team in the region to have ever won Olympic gold. Japan's dominance at the continental level is undisputed. They are the most decorated team in the history of the competition with a collection of 10 gold medals, 4 silver medals, and 4 bronze medals. In the three most recent editions, they have all reached the podium. That is a proud legacy, but it is also the heavy cloak that the players of coach Philippe Blain must wear as they step onto the court on home soil. What makes this year's tournament special is not just the continental title. With FIVB changing its Olympic qualification system, the 2026 Asian Championship becomes a crucial link in the journey to Los Angeles. Teams are not just playing for national pride, but for a direct ticket to the 2028 Olympics. This pressure is doubled as the tournament also serves as a World Cup qualifier, creating a landscape where every group-stage match can reshape an entire Olympic cycle. Looking at Pool A, one can easily see the disparity in class. Japan is grouped with Bahrain, Oman, and Australia. Theoretically, this is a comfortable group for the hosts. But I have witnessed too many surprises at continental tournaments to be certain of anything. Australia, the 2026 champions, always know how to create uncomfortable matches with their physical style and disciplined defense. Bahrain and Oman, though rated lower, will fight with the spirit of those who have nothing to lose in a tournament that is both a title and a qualifier. Data from the 2026 Volleyball Nations League shows Japan in a solid position. A fourth-place finish at the year's most prestigious tournament is a clear signal of this team's stability. They are no longer a team reliant on a single star. The maturity of players like Yuki Ishikawa and Ran Takahashi, along with the squad depth built from a methodical youth development system, has created a collective capable of competing on equal footing with any team in the world. However, this very superiority creates an interesting paradox. When a team is too strong for the rest of the region, questions arise about the true level of competition in the tournament. Do one-sided matches help the development of Asian volleyball? Or is it merely a showcase of a dominant power's strength? This is a question I think the organizers and the AVC need to confront in the coming years, as the gap between Japan and the rest of the continent may continue to widen. Another notable point is that all matches will be streamed live on VBTV. This move reflects the strong digitalization trend in world volleyball, while opening up opportunities for Asian teams to reach a global audience. But it also raises questions about the commercial value of the tournament. Can online streaming generate enough revenue to sustain the sustainable development of continental volleyball? Or is it just part of FIVB's larger strategy to commercialize its competitions? In this context, Japan's opening match in Pool A will be the first test of their ambitions. A convincing victory will cement their status as the number one contender, but it could also breed complacency. Conversely, a hard-fought match even in victory will serve as a wake-up call for the hosts. In elite sports, the pressure of expectation can sometimes be more frightening than the opponent on the court. From a tactical perspective, I am particularly interested in how Japan handles first-touch situations and their setter system. In recent years, they have developed a fast, varied style of play, maximizing the capabilities of their spikers. But the question is whether this style works against the tall and dense blocks of European or Latin American teams should they progress beyond the Asian qualifiers. This is a puzzle the Japanese coaching staff needs to solve, not just for this tournament but for the longer goal of Los Angeles 2028. As for the other teams in Pool A, Australia is perhaps the most notable name. Though no longer in their golden era of 2026-2026, they still possess players with experience in European leagues. Bahrain and Oman, though rated lower, will fight with the spirit of those who have nothing to lose in a tournament that is both a title and a qualifier. I recall a conversation with a Brazilian scout at a youth tournament in Asia a few years ago. He told me: "Every transfer number is a life traded, and I want to tell that life rather than read the contract." That phrase resonates with me every time I analyze a tournament. Behind every victory, every defeat, are human stories that statistics can never fully capture. This year's Asian Championship is also an opportunity to review the overall picture of Asian men's volleyball. While Japan leads, other teams like Iran, South Korea, or China (should they participate) are also in the process of rebuilding. Competition in other groups will give us a clearer view of the true balance of power in the region, and whether any team is capable of surprising the Japanese. Interestingly, although Japan is the only Asian team to have won Olympic gold, their performances at World Cups and World Championships have not been commensurate. This shows that the gap between Asian volleyball and powerhouses like Brazil, Poland, or France remains significant. The tournament in Fukuoka, therefore, is not only an opportunity for Japan to assert their number one status in Asia but also a crucial stepping stone for them to prepare for bigger challenges on the international stage. From a media perspective, I notice that the expectations of Japanese fans are very high. This is reflected in the constant coverage of the national team by the country's media throughout the summer, from the VNL to the preparatory friendlies. The pressure of these expectations can be a double-edged sword. It can fuel the players' motivation, but it can also create unnecessary tension in decisive moments. Another aspect I want to address is the role of youth tournaments in maintaining Japan's dominance. Their youth development system, from high school to university clubs, is one of the best models in Asia. This ensures a continuous supply of talent for the national team. Meanwhile, many other countries in the region are still struggling to find a sustainable development strategy. Looking at the match schedule, I am particularly interested in the group-stage match between Japan and Australia. This could be the hosts' toughest match before the knockout stages. Australia, with their physical style and resilient fighting spirit, always know how to make life difficult for stronger opponents. A convincing victory over Australia would be a strong message Japan wants to send to their direct competitors for the Olympic berth. Tactically, I expect to see flexibility in how coach Philippe Blain uses his squad. With the current squad depth, he can rotate players in the group stage to preserve energy for more important matches in the later rounds. This is a privilege not every team has, and it shows the confidence of Japan's coaching staff in the ability of the entire team. However, I also want to offer a contrarian view. Is Japan's overwhelming superiority over the rest of Asia actually good for the development of regional volleyball? When one team dominates for too long, other teams may fall into a sense of inferiority, or worse, lose the motivation to compete. This raises questions about the AVC's tournament organization, and whether adjustments are needed to create more balance. From a sports business perspective, I note that the sports rights bubble has peaked. Streaming platforms are paying enormous sums for broadcast rights to major tournaments, and the question is whether this model is sustainable. In this context, VBTV's live broadcast of this tournament is a positive signal, but it also needs to be evaluated cautiously from a commercial standpoint. I also want to emphasize an important point: the development of Japanese women's volleyball in recent years has created a new wave of interest in the sport in the Land of the Rising Sun. Will the success of the women's team create a positive spillover effect on the men's team? The answer is likely yes, as audience and sponsor interest in volleyball in general is visibly increasing. Returning to the tournament in Fukuoka, I believe this will be an exciting competition, not only for its professional quality but also for the stories surrounding it. Japan with their ambition to assert dominance, Australia with their desire to recreate past glories, Bahrain and Oman with their dreams of causing an upset. All will create a colorful picture of Asian volleyball. As I write these lines, I remember the moment I stood in the stadium corridors in Russia in 2026, waiting to interview players. I realized that in sports, nothing is certain. What looks like an easy victory can turn into a nerve-wracking match. And it is that uncertainty that makes us love this sport. Fukuoka will be the stage where stories are written. Will Japan realize their status as the number one contender? Will Australia create a surprise? Will Bahrain or Oman write their own fairy tale? All will be answered in the coming days. And I, as someone who has dedicated an entire career to following this sport, will be there to capture those moments. Volleyball, like life, never goes according to a predetermined script. It has unexpected twists, moments of brilliance, and painful defeats. But it is these very things that create the beauty of this sport. And in Fukuoka, we will witness a new chapter in Asian volleyball history being written. Japan enters the tournament as the most highly rated team, but they also understand that titles do not come easily. They need to prove it on the court, through every touch, every set. And that is what makes this tournament worth watching. For the other teams, this tournament is an opportunity to measure their level against the highest standard in Asia. Whatever the results, the lessons learned from this tournament will be valuable baggage for them on their long journey towards Los Angeles 2028. As night falls over Fukuoka and the stadium lights come on, I know we are about to witness a memorable tournament. Because in sports, as in life, the most beautiful moments often come from the unexpected. And that is why we cannot take our eyes off the court. Let us wait and see what happens in Fukuoka. Because volleyball, as I have learned throughout my career, never ceases to surprise us.